Economy

2024: The Year Ahead

Advisors absolutely do not have a crystal ball, so this post isn’t going to tell you what hot stock to buy or whether Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will stay together.  But there are a handful of themes that will play out over the course of the year, and those are important to understand. In […]

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Washington’s New State Capital Gains Tax

After two years of waiting, Washington has a new tax. Last week, the state Supreme Court ruled 7-2 in favor of the new 7% tax on capital gains. At issue was whether it was an income tax or an excise tax. HOW THE NEW TAX APPLIES Before you panic, note that the new tax probably doesn’t […]

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Farewell 2022 (Welcome 2023!)

As we start the New Year, it’s hard not to feel like we are living in some kind of Groundhog’s Day hamster wheel, starting this year with so many elements of the last one. War in Europe, virus warnings, threats to democracy and the challenges of new technologies. We have experienced some major setbacks in […]

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Inflation – Is It Behind Us?

Around this time last year, inflation started to rear its ugly head in earnest.  “Transitory” inflation was gaining traction.  Over the next 12 months, prices jumped big time, and the Fed responded with interest rate hikes to slow the economy.  We are seeing signs of the economy cooling: layoffs and some corporate downsizing, and mixed […]

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Inflation and the “Post-Pandemic” Portfolio

Just as we have adjusted to everyday life with a global virus, and worked through waves of Delta, Omicron and BA2, BA4, BA5, our financial lives are beset with old fears about inflation, recession and financial market declines.  We knew that we would not be able to just flip a switch and turn the post-pandemic […]

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A Cold, Dark Winter: Crisis, Uncertainty, Ukraine

This month’s intended topic was taxes.  We know that the best laid plans will hit one obstacle or another along the way.  But having a plan – and sticking to it – is one of the best countermeasures to uncertainty. And so this week began with an escalating crisis in eastern Europe. With a 24-hour […]

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Farewell, 2021 (and Good Riddance)

Before we welcome the New Year, let’s take a quick look back at 2021. In my view it has been a terrible year.  In addition to the ongoing and awful pandemic with all its associated economic difficulty, here in Washington state we had a disastrous roll-out of a badly-designed state long-term care plan (the WA […]

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Taking Stock of Markets: Institutions, Inaugurations, Elections, Insurrections

After the first week of the year, you might have wanted to cancel your 7-day trial subscription to 2021. But onward we went: election, insurrection, inauguration, impeachment. It shows that the Universe has a wicked sense of humor when we were closing out an impeachment hearing over President’s Day weekend. I’m going to try to […]

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Holiday Planning…During a Plague

Stock market watchers often talk about whether “this time it’s different”: Does this bull market reflect the same conditions as the last one? Is this downturn different from the one just before the last recession? This time, is it different? Almost always, circumstances might be different, but business cycles are more or less the same. […]

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Coronavirus, the Economy and a Recovery: The Way Through, Part 2

March seems like a long time ago, even though it’s only been six months. Life in Corona Times. Back in March we had just started shutdown here in the United States, the economy ground to a halt with exception of a few essentials, the stock market plummeted. We found comfort in Netflix and a stockpile […]

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